IoD reaction to GDP figures

Published on Wednesday, 25 January 2012 10:47
Posted by Scott Buckler

Commenting on the latest GDP figures, which showed a decline of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011, Graeme Leach, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, said

The tightrope walk between recession and recovery continues. We’ve taken one step towards a double-dip recession, and it’s now probably 50-50 as to whether we’ll take the second, with a fall in output this quarter as well.

“It’s important to stress that the 0.2% fall in GDP is not large and could be reversed as QE2 works through the economy. But even if output does increase in Q1 we’ll continue to experience the feel-bad jobless recovery for some time yet. Indeed, the combination of falling output and today’s MPC minutes suggest QE2 could be further expanded in February.

“The tipping point for recession or recovery remains economic developments in the eurozone. If the euro crisis gets worse, sustaining UK recovery looks almost impossible.”

 

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